With so many unprecedented and hefty considerations, markets might enjoy today’s complete absence of scheduled economic data as some sort of chance to seek its own equilibrium. That sentence was actually lifted from an article we wrote in July 2011 when European drama was first beginning to collide with impending Fed policy changes. The first four days of the week contained plenty of events informing both of those heavy hitters and markets attempted to reconcile those versus the decreasingly significant scheduled econ calendar. Back then, we thought that the data-less Friday looked like a decent opportunity for markets to “trade it out,” but as it happened, things didn’t move too much until two weeks later when 10yr yields dropped about 60bps in 5 days in the run up to NFP. Interestingly enough…(read more)

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If the calendar of upcoming events and y’day’s volume are any indication, it’s possible that Wednesday was the climactic final scene before the intermission. Volume ramped up steadily on the first three days of the week, hitting it’s best levels since mid-March. 10yr Treasuries hit their best levels since October, stocks their lowest since January, and MBS hit all-time highs yet again (and took down a big chunk of originator production in the process). All “that” seemed to come to a head with today’s FOMC minutes and obligatory Greek headline(s). On the surface, tomorrow looks much calmer by comparison. Apart from the standard weekly Jobless Claims, forecast at 365k vs last week’s 367k (not really on our radar as a big market mover at the moment), there’s really only the Philly Fed index at…(read more)

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